2. Disaster risk analysis in health

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analisis riesgo desastresAs discussed in Module 1, there is a relationship between type of adverse event and the health effects it causes. For this reason, the health sector’s disaster management program should have a clear knowledge of the hazards that are present in the country or specific region in question, whether their origin is natural (geological or hydrometeorological), technological (chemical or radiological/nuclear accidents), social (violence, war, subversive activity), or biological (major epidemics). Existing vulnerabilities should also be identified—both the vulnerability of the population and the vulnerability of the health services—to ascertain the magnitude of potential risk to the health sector. This information is key to setting priorities and defining the actions of the health sector’s national disaster management program.

 

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2.1 Hazard and vulnerability analysis

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analisis de amenazas

The level of risk to which a country or population group is exposed when a violent event occurs depends on a combination of two factors: the hazard itself and the vulnerability. As a result, defining risk requires assessing the hazards and the vulnerability of the people and elements exposed to them.

There are various tools for assessing hazards. The CAPRA platform includes the models most commonly used to assess the different types of hazards. It is important to emphasize that the analysis itself is the responsibility of national agencies and it requires the participation of technical and scientific institutions in fields related to geology, seismology, volcanology, hydrometeorology, and epidemiology, among others. In general, little can be done to change hazards, especially when they are of natural origin, and thus prevention (elimination of the risk) is more an ideal than a practical reality.

 

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2.2. Describing risk

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descripcion del riesgo-engVarious methodologies and tools have been developed to assess the magnitude of risk, but since there are no commonly recognized and accepted criteria for this type of evaluation, the results that they yield often have discrepancies or are only partial, depending on the particular criteria used and the importance and values that are assigned to them. One system is based on indicators of disaster risk and disaster risk management. It employs a quantitative method to put a value on hazards, vulnerabilities, and risk, to help decision-makers to develop and propose effective risk management actions, taking macroeconomic, social, institutional, and technical realities into account.

 

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2.3 Levels of protection

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Once risk has been assessed, and recognizing that it is impossible to reduce the level of risk to zero, a level of ‘acceptable risk’ must be defined—based on potential social and economic consequences of a disaster. For example, guidelines for planning, designing and protecting public works are established according to a definition of acceptable risk.

The health sector must also consider successive levels of protection.

Life protection is the minimum level of protection that every structure must comply with. It ensures that a building will not collapse and harm its occupants. Many hospitals in developing countries do not comply with this basic requirement. However, years ago this was also the case in developed countries. In the 1971 San Fernando, California earthquake, more than 90% of the deaths occurred in hospitals.

Investment protection involves safeguarding infrastructure and equipment. From a health point of view, protecting the investment means that repairs can be made more rapidly, leading to much faster rehabilitation. Post-disaster reconstruction can be a very long process.

Operational protection is meant to ensure that health facilities can function in the aftermath of a disaster. This is the optimal level of protection for the most essential hospitals.


Go to: Socioeconomic impact
of disasters on the health sector